| La Minute du jour: Miss Colombie, Pauline Vega, couronnée Miss Univers 2014 Posted: 26 Jan 2015 09:04 AM PST Si vous avez des difficultés pour visualiser ce message, suivez ce lien   |
| Top Stories of the Day // January 26, 2015 Posted: 26 Jan 2015 09:04 AM PST | Here’s How To Turn On Windows 10’s New, Hidden Calendar And Clock | | | Facebook Is Testing A Simple App For Low-End Android Phones | | | Israel Grows From Startup Nation To Exit Nation | | | Coinbase Is Opening The First Regulated Bitcoin Exchange In The U.S. | | | The Reason To Be Cheerful About HoloLens | | | Fly Or Die: Canary Home Monitoring System | | | Malaysia Airlines Site Hacked By Lizard Squad | | | | | | 
 | Alex Wilhelm | |  | Jon Russell Not content with spinning out apps for Messenger, Groups and new addition Rooms, Facebook is testing another standalone app. Facebook Lite, which some may... read more | |  | Dennis Mitzner Thanks to a string of big exits over the past year, Israel's technology companies are moving the country from a startup nation to an exit nation. read more | |  | Jon Russell Fresh from scoring a massive $75 million funding round, bitcoin payment firm Coinbase has revealed that it will open the first licensed bitcoin exchange in the... read more | |  | Tadhg Kelly With the release of the HoloLens, Microsoft put something out there that has a chance of being transformative. Not in the high concept way, but in a general way... read more | |  | Jordan Crook | |  | Catherine Shu Hacker group Lizard Squad, which took down Xbox Live and the Sony Playstation Network last month, have claimed credit for an attack on Malaysia Airlines'... read more | |  | The Gillmor Gang — Benedict Evans, Robert Scoble, Kevin Marks, Keith Teare, and Steve Gillmor. Topics... read more | |  | We’re at the end of another big week for the tech industry, so Alex Wilhelm, Kyle Russell and I gathered... read more | | | Gillmor Gang – Benedict Evans, Robert Scoble, Keith Teare, Kevin Marks, and Steve Gillmor. Live recording... read more | | | To forward this newsletter to a friend, click here. | | | | | |   |
| Share the View 2: Greece's Vote Posted: 26 Jan 2015 09:02 AM PST   | | Share The View | | The Latest Opinions From Bloomberg View |
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| Europe The Editors: "The Syriza party's victory in Greek elections is a well-deserved rebuke to the way the European Union and successive governments in Athens have mishandled the country's debt crisis, and the voters' judgment must now be respected. But even as the neo-Marxist party moves to change Greece's dismal economic outlook, it will have to keep in mind that it does not have a mandate to leave the euro." Read more... Mark Gilbert: "Now comes the hard part. The Syriza party's rise to power on pledges to halt spending cuts and renegotiate Greece's debt burden doesn't necessarily spell the disaster that scaremongering claimed it would." Read more... Leonid Bershidsky: "It may seem ironic that Marine Le Pen, the leader of France's extreme-right Front National, rooted for the extreme-left Syriza in yesterday's Greek election and rejoiced at its landslide victory. Yet there's nothing unusual about it." Read more... Mohamed A. El-Erian: "The outcome of the Greek elections is indicative of a broader political phenomenon in Europe that involves the growth of non-traditional parties." Read more...
India William Pesek: "Raghuram Rajan's recent surprise rate cut was what central bankers call an 'insurance move.' ... More quietly, Rajan is taking out another policy that could pay even bigger dividends in years to come. He's hoarding dollars." Read more...
Law Cass R. Sunstein: The Supreme Court's 1905 decision in Lochner v. New York "struck down a maximum-hours law for bakers. A week ago, Senator Rand Paul -- a likely candidate for president, and among the most influential members of the Republican Party -- explicitly embraced Lochner, and proudly endorsed the whole idea of 'judicial activism.' That tells us a lot about contemporary law and politics, and probably about the future of conservative thinking as well." Read more...
Investing Paula Dwyer: The financial world "is divided into two categories: brokers who work on commission and advisers who work for fees. ... The Barack Obama administration may soon come down mostly on the financial advisers' side, and for good reason." Read more...
News Roundup Matt Levine (Read the news roundup) Jonathan Bernstein (Read the news roundup) - Seth Masket at Mischiefs of Faction argues that parties can help save state legislatures: Read more...
- At the Monkey Cage, Andrew Wolff looks at the foreign-policy portions of President Barack Obama's State of the Union address: Read more...
- James Pethokoukis at National Review makes the case for Senator Marco Rubio: Read more...
Barry Ritholtz (Read the news roundup) - The Swiss franc appreciation and the sorry saga of FX lending: Read more...
- Mr. Neuger and Mr. Fitzmaurice would like your money, again: Read more...
- No, the U.S. economy isn't about to fall into recession: Read more...
Katie Benner (Read the news roundup) - Pity the poor cellular-network operator. Read more...
- Coinbase will launch the first licensed U.S. bitcoin exchange. Read more...
- Product Hunt threw a happy hour, and 3,700 people showed up. Read more...
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|      | | For more information, email view@bloomberg.net. | | For media inquiries, contact Farrell Sklerov at +1-212-843-8289 or fsklerov@rubenstein.com. |
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| Edition 17h - Windows 10 : dernière Technical Preview en images > Panne Oxalide : "Il n’y a pas un seul responsable" > Augmentations en série chez les opérateurs > CyanogenMod (Android) rêve d'indépendance Posted: 26 Jan 2015 08:38 AM PST  | | NEWS | | Édition du lundi 26 janvier 2015, 17h19 | | | | | | |  |  | 4G Monitor : le baromètre du haut débit mobile
ZDNet.fr lance 4G Monitor, un nouveau service participatif qui vous permet de comparer la qualité de service des opérateurs français en matière de haut débit mobile (3G, 3G+ et 4G). Il s'appuie sur l'application gratuite 4Gmark. | | |
| Livres Blancs IT Suivez ZDNet.fr Les services ZDNet.fr | | | | | Vous recevez cet email car vous êtes inscrits à la newsletter ZDNet.fr NEWS. Votre adresse d'abonnement est ahmedi.taleb.sassi.publication@blogger.com. Désabonnement : cliquez ici. | | Copyright (c) 2015 CUP Interactive, tous droits réservés. | | |   | | La nouvelle Build de Windows 10 est disponible, Le Galaxy S6 de Samsung, Nous avons teste l USB 3.1 Posted: 26 Jan 2015 08:34 AM PST  | Si le message ne s'affiche pas correctement, cliquez ici. |  | | lundi 26 janvier 2015 | Publicité
| Les titres de l'actualité publiée sur Tom's Hardware
La nouvelle Build de Windows 10 est disponible David Civera Microsoft vient de publier la nouvelle Build de Windows 10 estampillée 9926. Elle n’inclut pas toutes les fonctionnalités présentées à la dernière conférence, mais elle permet de se faire un avis de l’arrivée de Cortana sur PC. lire la suite
Nous avons testé l'USB 3.1 David Civera Nos équipes américaines ont mis la main sur la première carte mère utilisant un contrôleur USB 3.1 d’ASMedia, la MSI X99A Gaming 9 ACK qui utilise la puce ASM1142 et qui succèdera à la MSI X99S Gaming 9 ACK que l’on trouve pour l’instant. lire la suite
Frit, le graphène est bien meilleur Matthieu Lamelot Si vous nous lisez régulièrement, vous connaissez le graphène. Cousin du graphite des mines de crayon et des fameux nanotubes de carbone, ce matériau recele sans doute les clés de futures technologies tant ses propriétés mécaniques et électriques sont e lire la suite
Quand Mario apprend à jouer à son propre jeu Matthieu Lamelot Stephen Hawking et Elon Musk craignent que les intelligences artificielles (IA) finissent par éradiquer l'humanité. En attendant ce jour funeste, d'autres poursuivent leurs recherches de manière plus joyeuse. Une équipe de l'université de Tübingen en Al lire la suite
Dying Light : les versions physiques en retard Marc Dofundo révu pour une sortie le 27 janvier, Dying Light, le nouveau FPS mâtiné de RPG par Techland, aura du retard. À nuancer toutefois, puisque c'est uniquement les versions physiques qui arriveront à la bourre dans nos contrées. lire la suite
 | Driver AMD Catalyst
Drivers AMD Catalyst 11.2 pour Windows XP, Vista et 7. | | |  | Driver AMD Catalyst - Hotfix
Pilotes AMD Catalyst 11.1a hotfix pour les cartes AMD Radeon HD 6800 et 6900 installées sous Windows 7. | | |  | Driver nVidia GeForce/ION
Drivers nVidia GeForce/ION pour les GPU de bureau GeForce séries 6, 7, 8, 9, 100, 200, 300, 400 et 500 ainsi que les GPU de bureau ION. | | | Tom's Hardware est un site de Bestofmedia Group - Copyright ©2015 Bestofmedia Group. | |   | | Most Popular: Euro Strengthens After Greek Vote; U.S. Stocks Fluctuate Posted: 26 Jan 2015 08:17 AM PST | | Please add most_popular@email.bloomberg.com to your address book. | | | | | | | 1 | | Euro Strengthens After Greek Vote; U.S. Stocks Fluctuate | | Jan 26, 2015 10:47 AM ET | | The euro rebounded from an 11-year low and European equities rose amid speculation fallout from the election of the anti-austerity Syriza party in Greece will be contained. U.S. stocks fluctuated with oil. | | | | | | | | | ADVERTISEMENT |  | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 9 | | New York May Get Three Feet of Snow Starting Monday | | Jan 25, 2015 8:15 PM ET | | A blizzard forecasters call “life- threatening” that’s set to hit the U.S. Northeast prompted more than 500 flight cancellations and threatened delays to rail and ground traffic, as well as school closings and power outages. | | | | | | | 10 | | Tsipras Forges Anti-Austerity Coalition in EU Challenge | | Jan 26, 2015 9:07 AM ET | | Alexis Tsipras was sworn in as Greek prime minister and handed a mandate to form a government that will challenge international creditors over the budget cuts he said had heaped humiliation on the country. | | | | | | |  | | Miss Colombie est Miss Univers; la Haute Couture pour les nuls; la recette du risotto de Jean-François Piège; Top Chef... Posted: 26 Jan 2015 08:09 AM PST Si vous avez des difficultés pour visualiser ce message, suivez ce lien   | | EN IMAGES. Fashion week : pluie de stars chez Dior - EN IMAGES. Miss Univers 2014 : le sacre de la Colombienne Paulina Vega Posted: 26 Jan 2015 08:09 AM PST Si vous ne parvenez pas à lire cet email, vous pouvez le visualiser la version en ligne..
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| Snoqualmie Pass - 1/26/2015 7:27:16 AM Posted: 26 Jan 2015 07:32 AM PST 
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| Sécurité routière: Bernard Cazeneuve annonce 26 mesures dont la conduite accompagnée dès 15 ans Posted: 26 Jan 2015 07:31 AM PST Si vous avez des difficultés pour visualiser ce message, suivez ce lien   |
| La lettre d'info Culture et Loisirs Posted: 26 Jan 2015 07:26 AM PST    Si vous n'arrivez pas à lire cette page, cliquez ici  26 janvier 2015  DISPARITION - Artémios Ventoúris Roúsos de son vrai nom s'est éteint à Athènes à l'âge de 68 ans. Le musicien et interprète grec de Quand je t'aime ou My reason avait vendu près de 60 millions d'albums dans le monde..  VIDÉOS - Le chanteur grec s'est éteint à 68 ans à Athènes. D'abord avec ses amis musiciens Vangelis, Sideras, Papas et Kouroulis puis en solo, il a interprété quelques-uns des plus grands tubes de la fin des années 60 et du début des années 70..  Le chanteur grec est mort dans la nuit de samedi à dimanche à 68 ans. De Sheila à Nana Mouskouri, en passant par Michel Polnaref ou Stéphane Bern, nombreuses ont été les personnalités qui ont exprimé leur tristesse sur les réseaux sociaux et dans les médias.. .  EN IMAGES - La ville belge devenue capitale européenne de la Culture cette année, a réuni plus de 100.000 personnes lors de sa soirée d'ouverture. Retour sur quatre des moments phares..  Le peintre néerlandais est à l'honneur de la manifestation culturelle, avec une exposition de soixante-dix peintures, dessins et lettres. À découvrir au Musée des beaux-arts jusqu'au 17 mai..  Une feuille de papier griffonnée par la célèbre romancière circule sur le Web, permettant à ses lecteurs d'en savoir plus sur la manière dont celle-ci a travaillé sur l'écriture du tome 5 de la saga fantastique, L'Ordre du Phénix..  WEB-SÉRIE 7/7 - À l'occasion du quarantième anniversaire d'Apostrophe, retour sur les moments forts de cette émission littéraire culte. Quelques jours avant la remise du Goncourt 1988, Hervé Bazin faisait face aux candidats les plus sérieux. L'auteur de L'Étudiant étranger se souvient de cette émission exceptionnelle..  VIDÉOS - À l'occasion du cinquantième anniversaire de la mort du grand homme politique anglais, florilège des acteurs qui ont incarné à l'écran ce symbole de la victoire des Alliés sur l'Allemagne nazie..  Quels seront les longs métrages présentés au prochain rendez-vous cinématographique? L'hebdomadaire Le Film français a évoqué quelques pistes dans son dernier numéro..  Le syndicat des acteurs (SAG) et le syndicat des producteurs (PGA) de Hollywood ont sacré ce week-end le film d'Alejandro González Iñárritu qui part grand favori à la course de la prestigieuse statuette..  Le film de David Koepp est un échec commercial et critique en France et outre-Atlantique.. . .  Le film de Clint Eastwood, six fois nommé aux Oscars, garde sa place de leader. The Boy Next Door, dans lequel joue Jennifer Lopez figure en deuxième position..  Le prix Nobel de littérature péruvien a révélé ses talents d'acteur à Madrid dans Les Contes de la peste inspirée du Décaméron de l'Italien Giovanni Boccaccio. Il s'est aussi exprimé à propos du terrorisme, «une peste de notre époque» qui «prend plusieurs formes, religieuses, politiques»..  À l'Odéon, Luc Bondy met en scène Ivanov avec Micha Lescot et Marina Hands. Confidences pendant les répétitions, avant la première le 29 janvier..  Invitée dans l'émission On n'est pas couché, la chanteuse a évoqué son divorce difficile avec Stephen Stills. Elle a même avoué avoir voulu s'offrir les services d'un professionnel..  DISPARITION - Le leader du groupe allemand est mort le 20 janvier, à l'âge de 70 ans. Il laisse la musique électronique orpheline de l'un de ses pères spirituels, mordu de synthétiseurs et d'ambiances planantes.. .  Le vendeur d'une «copie» des Tricheurs, qui pourrait finalement être un original du peintre italien, avait récemment attaqué la célèbre maison des ventes pour «négligence en expertise». Une condamnation à laquelle la justice s'est opposée.
Toute l'actualité des ventes avec Le Figaro Enchères. .  Jusqu'au 29 mars, les architectures éphémères de «Mobile Homes» s'installent au pied du Musée d'Orsay. Logements modulables, perchés ou nomades, des idées pas si incongrues émergent..  VIDÉO - Jusqu'au 28 janvier, en marge du SIRHA, de nombreux événements gastronomiques sont organisés à destination du grand public dans la cité rhodanienne..  L'ancienne présentatrice du 20 heures de TF1, très gourmande, est une spécialiste de ce gâteau cacaoté «juste cuit». Voici sa recette..  Un plan de lutte sera annoncé ce lundi à la suite de la hausse de la mortalité routière en 2014, la première depuis douze ans..  Chaque hiver, on compte des centaines d'accidents sur les pistes, parfois graves. Philippe Browaeys, instructeur à la Croix-Rouge et maître-pisteur en Savoie, détaille les bons gestes pour porter les premiers secours..
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| Politics CheatSheet - Santorum Calls on Clones for Help Posted: 26 Jan 2015 07:10 AM PST | | Read This, Skip That .... |  | |
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| Votre grille de programmes TV avec TVMag.com Posted: 26 Jan 2015 07:02 AM PST   | LES PROGRAMMES À NE PAS RATER |
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| BGR Daily Breaking Stories Posted: 26 Jan 2015 07:01 AM PST  | Daily Headlines | | Monday, January 26, 2015 | |  | Stunning renders show 12-inch MacBook Air next to 12-inch iPad Air Plus | The rumored 12-inch MacBook Air and 12-inch iPad Air Plus/iPad Pro are reportedly launching later this year, as recent reports have confirmed major details about Apple’s newest MacBook model. Because the two different devices will be somewhat similar when it comes to size and build quality, some users may actually have a hard time choosing between them, and designer Martin Hajek has come up with a variety of 3D renters showing what these products may look like.
More →
|  | T-Mobile wants to help you score cheaper smartphones – here's how | Looking to buy even cheaper smartphones? T-Mobile's got you covered under the new Score! plan — yes, strangely enough the “Un-carrier” has a plan which you'll have to pay every month to get cheaper access to some of the hottest smartphones in its stock. Fortunately, the plan only costs $5/month, and it's still less expensive than paying full price for your next smartphone.
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| | |  | Just when you thought Comcast couldn’t get any worse… | We really shouldn’t be surprised by nightmare Comcast stories anymore… but somehow the company keeps coming up with creative ways to deliver terrible service. The Philadelphia Inquirer brings us the story of Louis Moravec and Susan Thauer, two Philly residents who had an impossible time getting Comcast to actually come out to their new place and hook them up with Internet services. In fact, what should have been a simple one-afternoon process ending up taking three weeks and an estimate 50 hours on the phone with Comcast customer service representatives.
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|  | Forget 1Gbps – the cable industry says you don't even need 25Mbps | There are times when it’s easy to picture cable companies as Mr. Bumble, the orphanage headmaster in Oliver Twist (i.e., “Please, sir, I want some more bandwidth!” “MORE BANDWIDTH?!!!??!”). We bring this up because Ars Technica has spotted a new FCC filing made by the National Cable and Telecommunications Association in which the cable lobbying group argues that the average consumer doesn’t even need a connection speed of 25Mbps, let alone faster ones like the 1Gbps connections offered by Google Fiber.
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|  | Galaxy S6 reportedly getting a special version of the Snapdragon 810 | After many reports claimed that Qualcomm encountered performance issues with its 2015 64-bit octa-core flagship processor, the company has once again denied that the chip has overheating issues, The Wall Street Journal reports. At the same time, sources familiar with the matter are also saying that Qualcomm is making a different Snapdragon 810 SoC for the Galaxy S6, even if there aren't any heat issues with the current one.
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|  | Walmart takes on Chromecast with even cheaper, simpler streaming stick | Walmart's quietly launched Vudu Spark is the latest Chromecast competitor, a device that's supposed to be about as big as Google's streaming dongle, but even cheaper. However, it appears the stick might have more limited powers than the Chromecast also, as GigaOm reports.
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|  | This tiny gadget turns your ordinary sink into a high-tech washing machine | With almost a month left in its Indiegogo campaign, Dolfi has already topped its $100,000 goal by more than $25,000 by convincing many backers to invest in its interesting clothes-washing technology. Dolfi is a tiny device, about as big as a smartphone, that can wash delicate clothes by itself using ultrasonic technology to remove dirt from clothes that are immersed in a sink or other container with water and washing powder.
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|  | See what Skype will look like on Windows 10 | This week has been packed with Windows 10 news already, but Microsoft isn’t done showing off its new operating system quite yet. On Thursday, the Skype team revealed what its chat service will look like on Windows 10 and discussed how the program will be improving as it makes its way to the next generation of Windows devices.
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|  | We may be about to learn Google Fiber's next destination | Google is taking its sweet time figuring out where it wants to launch Google Fiber next but DSLReports’s Karl Bode thinks he may have the answer.
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|  | LG: Android 5.0 Lollipop update is 'coming soon' to the G3 | It’s been a long, arduous wait, but the good news is that it’s nearly over. LG announced on Friday that the Lollipop update for G3 smartphones is “coming soon.” How soon, we’re not sure, but considering the fact that the update is already live on the G3 in other territories (and has been for weeks), it shouldn’t be much longer.
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| Syriza Wins Greek Election.. Fierce Fighting In Ukraine.. Kobani Siege Posted: 26 Jan 2015 06:35 AM PST  Monday January 26, 2015 Greece's Syriza To Form Government After Election Victory Radical left leader Alexis Tsipras has been sworn in as Greece's new prime minister, becoming the youngest man to hold the post in 150 years. Read more.  Fierce Fighting Rocks Eastern Ukraine Russian-backed rebels pushed forward on Monday with a new offensive that has brought all-out war back to eastern Ukraine after a five-month ceasefire, bringing U.S. and European threats of tighter Western financial sanctions against Moscow. Read more.  Kurdish Officials Say They've Nearly Pushed ISIS Out Of Kobani Kurdish fighters backed by intense U.S.-led airstrikes pushed the Islamic State group almost entirely out of the Syrian town of Kobani on Monday, marking a major loss for extremists whose hopes for easy victory dissolved into a bloody, costly siege that seems close to ending in defeat. Read more.  Survivors Visit Auschwitz A Day Ahead Of 70th Anniversary The voice of Auschwitz survivors praying for their murdered loved ones reverberated Monday amid the barracks and barbed wire of the former Nazi death camp, with one survivor crying out in a pained voice: "I don't want to come here anymore!" Read more.  Journalist Who Broke News Of Argentine Prosecutor's Death Flees The first journalist to report on the death of a Argentine state prosecutor, who was investigating the deadly 1994 bombing of a Jewish community center in Buenos Aires, said on Saturday that he had fled Argentina fearing for his life. Read more.  Sons of Ousted Egyptian President Freed From Prison The two sons of ousted Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak were released from prison Monday, nearly four years after they were first arrested along with their father, authorities said. Read more.  On The Blog: The Greeks Have Taken Responsibility It has been clear that the Greek citizens have rejected, not just the austerity measures, but also the vicious, patronizing and corrupted political system, ruled for four decades by the conservative ND and the socialist PASOK. Read more.   Follow HuffPost on Facebook and Twitter:   Get Huffington Post on the Go  |
| Alexis Tsipras devient officiellement Premier ministre de la Grèce Posted: 26 Jan 2015 06:28 AM PST Si vous avez des difficultés pour visualiser ce message, suivez ce lien   |
| Figaro.fr - Alerte Info Posted: 26 Jan 2015 06:27 AM PST |
| Testez le mix Milka Oreo Posted: 26 Jan 2015 06:20 AM PST |
| Incendie chez Jean-Marie Le Pen Posted: 26 Jan 2015 06:18 AM PST | | Si vous ne souhaitez plus recevoir d'emails de la part du Parisien.fr, vous pouvez vous désabonner. |
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| Figaro.fr - Alerte Info Posted: 26 Jan 2015 06:16 AM PST   Jean-Marie Le Pen blessé au visage lors de l'incendie de sa maison Un incendie s'est déclaré aujourd'hui dans la maison de Jean-Marie Le Pen à Rueil-Malmaison (Hauts-de-Seine). Il a été légèrement blessé au visage en voulant échapper aux flammes.
"La maison a brûlé, mon père était à l'intérieur. Il est blessé au visage, mais il n'y a rien de grave, rien d'inquiétant", a déclaré la présidente du Front national (FN), Marine Le Pen.
"Il s'agit d'un départ de feu accidentel qui a pris vraisemblablement dans le conduit de la cheminée sur laquelle travaillait un ouvrier", à la mi-journée dans la maison de Jean-Marie Le Pen a relaté une source policière, confirmant une information de LCI. Jean-Marie Le Pen "s'est refugié sur la terrasse" et "est tombé en voulant échapper aux flammes", a expliqué une autre source.
Avec son épouse Jany, ils ont été pris en charge par les pompiers, mais leur état ne nécessitait pas une hospitalisation.
Plus d'infos sur Le Figaro  |
| LIVE TODAY: The Stars Of Sundance, Journalist Nicholas Kristof, and The Artistic Side Of Porn Posted: 26 Jan 2015 06:04 AM PST |
| HUFFPOLLSTER: What 2016 Polling Tells Us, And What It Doesn't Posted: 26 Jan 2015 05:23 AM PST  HUFFPOLLSTER What 2016 Polling Tells Us, And What It Doesn't  koksharov dmitry via Getty Images By Mark Blumenthal, Ariel Edwards-Levy & Janie Velencia
Early general election trial heats tell us little, but pollsters have other questions to ask. Chris Christie's negatives are higher than those of past nominees. And what's the point of the margin of error, anyway? This is HuffPollster for Monday, January 26, 2015.
GENERAL ELECTION 2016 POLLS DON'T PREDICT MUCH, YET - Jason Linkins: "[L]eading up to any presidential election, there will be months in which the head-to-head polling of the race is very accurate and other months in which it's very inaccurate. I've prepared a little guide here, ranking the 10 best months for polling accuracy for the next presidential election, in order from least to most accurate.
10. March 2016
9. April 2016
8. June 2016
7. May 2016
6. July 2016
5. August 2016
4. September 2016
3. October 2016
2. November 2016
1. December 2016
As you can see, if you're a reporter and you want to obtain the most accurate possible snapshot of who is going to win a presidential election from a pollster, the best time to call him up is between twenty and fifty days after the election....At this point, you may be wondering, 'Well, if polling is so inaccurate until you get very close to an election, why do they continue to do it?' The short answer is that pollsters ask many questions that are more interesting than 'Who would you vote for in this head-to-head matchup?' The answers just don't make for banner headlines." [HuffPost]
BUT EARLY NEGATIVES MAY BE A BARRIER TO CHRISTIE - Harry Enten: "We’re a long way from knowing who will be the Republican nominee for president in 2016. Early polling data, however, can give us a sense for who fits the profile of past nominees, and who doesn’t. Since 1980, two types of candidates have won presidential nominations when an incumbent president wasn’t running in their party: those who were unfamiliar to voters early in the campaign, and those who were both well known and well liked....no prior nominee had a net favorability rating more than 10 percentage points below where you’d expect given his name recognition. Christie is 25 percentage points off the pace. His net favorable rating among Republicans in an average of YouGov polls so far this year, a December Monmouth University poll and a late November Quinnipiac University poll is just +19 percentage points. That was despite 77 percent of Republicans being able to form an opinion of him." [538]
'WHAT'S THE POINT OF THE MARGIN OF ERROR?' - After a online debate over the margin of error succumbs to a technical glitch, Columbia University political scientist and statistician Andrew Gelman posts his thoughts about the value of the margin of error: "[W]e often don’t need the margin of error at all. Anything worth doing is worth doing multiple times, and once you have multiple estimates from different samples, you can look at the variation between them to get an external measure of variation that is more relevant than an internal margin of error, in any case. The margin of error is an approximate lower bound on the expected error of an estimate from a sample, and that such a lower bound can be useful, but that in most cases I’d get more out of the between-survey variation (which includes sampling error as well as variation over time, variation between sampling methods, and variation in nonsampling error). Where the margin of error often is useful is in design, in deciding how large a sample size you want to estimate a quantity of interest to some desired precision." [Gelman]
-Sponsors reschedule the webinar debate on the "margin of error' for Wednesday, January 28. [Peanut Labs]
MONDAY'S 'OUTLIERS' - Links to the best of news at the intersection of polling, politics and political data:
-A rise in George W. Bush's favorable ratings could help his brother, notes Andrew Kohut. [WashPost]
-Jonathan Bernstein surveys the field of 19 active Republican candidates.
[Bloomberg]
-The Upshot charts the shrinking middle class. [NYT]
-African Americans see the lack of diversity in this year's Oscars as part of a longstanding problem. [YouGov]
-The U.S. still lags other nations in its percentage of female leaders. Pew Read the whole story  | 770 Broadway, New York, NY 10003 | | |  
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