| HUFFPOLLSTER: What The Polls Tell Us On Election Day Posted: 04 Nov 2014 05:54 AM PST  HUFFPOLLSTER What The Polls Tell Us On Election Day  Hill Street Studios via Getty Images By Mark Blumenthal & Ariel Edwards-Levy
It's Election Day. Americans are casting their ballots in the only poll that matters. And if you want to watch returns like a pollster, there's still time to stock up on scotch, pain killers and Excel. This is HuffPollster for Tuesday, November 4, 2014.
As Election Day dawns, the final HuffPost Pollster election forecasts, based on all public polls, show that while a half dozen key Senate races remain very close, Republicans are on the verge of winning a majority of the U.S. Senate and adding to their existing majority in the U.S. House. Many of the 36 races for governor being decided on Tuesday remain remarkably close, with candidates separated by less than one percentage point in four states.
With the last batch of polls added, the Pollster Senate forecast gives Republicans a 79 percent chance of winning a Senate majority. The new polls released over the weekend nudged Republican margins slightly higher in a handful of close states, but our model's increasing confidence comes mostly from a shrinking pool of undecided voters and the ticking clock, which combine to make late shifts in the Democrats' favor less likely. The final estimates show contests leaning Republican in enough states to add up to a gain of 8 seats, adding up to a 53 seat senate GOP majority.
The Path To A Democratic Win - Although the odds against it are long, the Democrats' best chance to hold their majority is under the following scenario: Their candidates must hold on to tenuous leads in New Hampshire and North Carolina, and must defy the polls and overcome narrow Republican leads in both Iowa and Colorado. They would then need to pick up one more seat, either overcoming potentially longer odds in Georgia or Alaska, or hoping that independent Greg Orman wins in Kansas and opts to caucus with the Democrats.
Could the polls be wrong enough to miss Democratic wins in Colorado and Iowa? Our polling averages in Iowa and Colorado understated Barack Obama's margin over Mitt Romney by over 3 percentage points in 2012 and Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet's margin by exactly 3 points in 2010. A repeat would be just enough to put both Democrats slightly ahead in 2014, but the odds are long. As Nate Silver has noted, such polling errors have not been consistent over the longer term.
Even with a reversal in Iowa and Colorado, the challenge of finding the 50th Democratic caucus member is more daunting, but not inconceivable. The Kansas Senate race has been one of the closest in the nation, although our final estimate puts Republican Sen. Pat Roberts slightly ahead. A run-off election is virtually assured in Louisiana and a slightly better than a 50/50 proposition in Georgia. At very least, if the Democrats can come from behind in Iowa and Colorado, they would force the Senate battle into overtime.
The Path To A Republican Landslide - Differences between final polling averages and election results of 2 to 3 percentage points on the margin errors are not uncommon, but they could occur in either direction. As such, it is also possible that Republicans could overcome their small deficits in New Hampshire and North Carolina and hold their margins elsewhere, resulting in a 55 seat majority.
One theory, offered by RealClearPolitics' Sean Trende and Republican pollster Patrick Lanne, argued that the low approval rating of President Obama would cap support for Democratic candidates and that late deciding voters would break to the Republicans, as they did to Democrats in 2006. Something close to that scenario has played out. Since early October, for example, deciding voters helped increase support for Republican candidates (+2.8 percentage points) more than Democrats (+1.4 points).
If a similar pattern occurs among the voters who make up their minds in the final hours, it could make for a Republican wins in North Carolina, New Hampshire or both. The polls will close at 7:30 p.m. Eastern Time in North Carolina and by 8:00 p.m. in New Hampshire, so their votes will be among the first to be counted. Watch those results for signs of how the rest of the evening will go.
HOUSE ALSO LIKELY TO SEE REPUBLICAN GAINS - HuffPollster, with Natalie Jackson: "[T]he most recent data from national and district-level surveys suggests that while they're polling significantly behind the level of the 2010 GOP wave, Republicans are poised to expand their U.S. House majority on Tuesday, gaining at least a half dozen seats and perhaps as many as 10 to 15….HuffPost Pollster's tracking model for the generic House vote, which combines all of the public polls, has given Republicans an advantage of roughly 2 percentage points on the national generic vote question since early August. Democrats may see that margin as relatively good news, since national polls in 2010 had Republicans leading by much wider margins. Pollster's final 2010 average gave the GOP an 8-point advantage….While district-level polling is rare and the details of the statistical models complex and a bit murky, those derived from opinion polls are pointing mostly in the same direction: Republicans should gain as few as six and perhaps as many as a dozen or more seats in the House."
Looking for polling on an individual House race? - Pollster is tracking 25 of this year's most-polled congressional races, including races with a 3-point margin or less in IA-03, IA-04, ME-02, MA-06, MN-07, NH-01, NY-24 and WV-03. Click on "2014 House Races" under "explore a set of charts" to check them out. [HuffPost]
IN MANY STATES, GUBERNATORIAL RACES COULDN'T BE CLOSER - HuffPollster, with Natalie Jackson: "While the battle for the U.S. Senate has captured attention nationwide, some of this year's closest contests are among the 36 governor's races, nearly a third of which are headed to virtual photo finishes, according to recent polls. As of this writing, the HuffPost Pollster tracking models show the top candidates separated by less than three-tenths of a percentage point in four states -- Connecticut, Florida, Illinois and Maine. Four more states -- Alaska, Colorado, Michigan and Wisconsin -- are near tossups with the top two candidates separated by less than 2 percentage points. In three more contests -- Georgia, Kansas and Massachusetts -- the margins are slightly greater but remain close enough to allow for election night surprises. Those 11 races include seven seats currently held by the GOP and four held by Democrats, although any trend across the states may have more to do with general voter dissatisfaction than partisanship. Each, save Massachusetts, features a vulnerable incumbent, many of whom are taking criticism on how their states weathered the economic conditions of recent years." [HuffPost]
EARLY VOTE: BAD NEWS FOR DEMS IN COLORADO? - Harry Enten: "Democratic pollsters who have shown the race close to a tie have modeled an electorate in which registered Republicans make up 5 percentage points more of the electorate than registered Democrats. The two public pollsters, Marist College and Monmouth University, who released data on party registration gave Republicans a 7 percentage point registration advantage on average. Because the state has adopted all-mail voting, there has been a substantial portion of the vote already reported (90 percent of the number of votes cast in the last midterm). Through Monday night, Republicans are holding a 7.5 percentage point lead in party registration among those who voted — slightly more Republican-leaning than the average in the public polls." [538]
-Nate Cohn: "Colorado update: 1,586,226 votes counted, R 39.7, D 32.2...Today's pace wouldn't get Dems where they want to be. Another 500,000 ballots at this pace would yield R+6.6 at 2.086m votes....Democrats should hope that there are additional Denver/Boulder ballots tonight, and then Dems would still need to far much better [tomorrow]." [@Nate_Cohn here, here and here]
-Michael McDonald (via email): Cohn's reports "are incomplete counts from last night that don’t include all of the Denver/Boulder vote from yesterday....Bennet won in 2010 by 1.7 points with Republican registration advantage of +6.8 with a Green candidate taking 2.2% of the vote. We would also have to assume that the rate of Democratic and unaffiliated ballot returns don’t increase today. It is not implausible to think they will, as they have over the past half week. Not only are many ballots in the mail from the weekend, but many people will drop off ballots today at special drop boxes or vote in-person at special polling locations. These numbers, first, confirm what I said that this race would tighten. We can expect the race will continue to tighten today. Second, Bennet’s 2010 race is a reasonable baseline for comparison, and indicates the Colorado Senate election is going to be very close."
WHAT TO WATCH ON ELECTION NIGHT - The HuffPost Data Team has been hard at work on our 2014 Election Results dashboard, which will begin displaying the latest vote counts reported by the Associated Press for Senate, House and governor races, as well as statewide ballot measures beginning at 6:00 p.m. Eastern Time. The dashboard will once again include county-level maps and comparison scatterplots for the most competitive statewide races. [HuffPost 2014 Election Results]
Other election night resources:
-DailyKos maps the poll closing times. [DailyKos]
-The Upshot will apply an adjustment to AP election returns on Tuesday night. [NYT]
-Kevin Collins (D) has compiled linked to all 50 state Secretary of State election results sites. [Google Doc]
-Steve Koczela and Paul McMorrow explain their Massachusetts results dashboard. [YouTube, Dashboard]
-Brendan Nyhan offers advice for how to avoid getting fooled on Election Night. [NYT]
-Nate Cohn rounds up a list of "bellwether" counties. [NYT]
-Roll Call summarizes the recount rules for key battlegrounds. [Roll Call]
-Global Strategy Group (D) recommends scotch, painkillers and Excel to survive election night. [GSG]
WHY YOU STILL SHOULD IGNORE EARLY EXIT POLLS - HuffPollster, back in 2012: "Hard as it may be, you should try to ignore them, at least until the polls close. And even then, take the underlying vote estimates with big grains of salt….as tools to predict the outcome of close races just before the polls close, they are blunt instruments at best. Here's why: First, an exit poll is just a survey. Like other polls, it is subject to random sampling error, so differences of a few percentage points between the candidates in any given state sample are not terribly meaningful. Second, the networks almost never "call" truly competitive races on exit poll results alone...Third, the initial results of the exit poll interviews have had [past] problems with non-response bias, a consistent discrepancy favoring the Democrats...[Exit pollsters now] hold back the data from their news media clients in a sealed quarantine room on Election Day until 5 p.m. Eastern time. The quarantine means that any numbers purporting to be "exit polls" before 5 p.m. are almost certainly bogus." [HuffPost]
TUESDAY'S 'OUTLIERS' - Links to the best of news at the intersection of polling, politics and political data:
-Ann Selzer answers criticism of her final Des Moines Register Iowa Poll: "I've heard it before." [WashPost]
-Young Americans remain as Democratic as they were in 2010. [Gallup]
-Perceptions of President Obama are worse than they were in 2010. [YouGov]
-28 percent of registered voters say they have used their cell phones to follow political news or campaign coverage. [Pew Internet]
-Nate Silver and Harry Enten say a chaotic finish works in the Democrats favor. [538]
-Sean Trende reaches back to 1978 to conclude that 2014's results will say nothing about 2016. [RCP]
-John Sides presents four "fundamentals" in four graphs pointing to a Republican Senate victory. [WashPost]
-Two-thirds of persuadable voters say they use the Internet to vet candidates. [WashPost]
-Google search data doesn't seem to predict a voter surge. [NYT]
-Mona Chalabi has the numbers behind DC's push to decriminalize marijuana. [538]
-Patrick J. Egan says these elections are the most unrepresentative since World War II. [WashPost] Read the whole story  | 770 Broadway, New York, NY 10003 | | |   | Cheat Sheet - NSA Chief Bet Money on AT&T as It Spied on You Posted: 04 Nov 2014 05:40 AM PST | | Read This, Skip That .... |  |   | |  |  |
November 04, 2014 | | DIRTY MONEY While Gen. Keith Alexander ran the NSA, he also traded stocks in a tech company that had a sweetheart deal with AT&T, one of the agency's most important intelligence sources, reports Shane Harris. BAD TO WORSE The GOP is likely to take control of the Senate tonight, and Americans are in for a rude awakening. Political gridlock is only going to increase under this more ferocious class of Republicans, writes Jonathan Alter. With the election of a boatload of climate-change deniers, the environment may be the biggest victim of a Republican rout. STEEP CONFESSION An Oregon woman was charged early Tuesday morning with the aggravated murder for throwing her 6-year-old son off a bridge. Police say Jillian McCabe, 34, called to 911 at around 6:30 local time to say she threw her son off the Yaquina Bay Bridge. Within a few hours, a body was found in the bay. Cops said a number of witnesses told them they saw the woman walking with the child along the bridge before she then pushed him off the 130-foot-high structure. BOW DOWN Queen Bey has spoken, and the wait will soon be over. Beyoncé will release her latest album, a box set, on Nov. 24. BEYONCE Platinum Edition Box Set will include two new songs, "7/11" and "Ring Off," and four new collaborations, with Kanye West, Nicki Minaj, Pharrell Williams, and Mr. Vegas. A tracklist of new songs had leaked Monday, setting off rumors—and hopes—that a new album was coming. At least some of the song titles and collaborations mentioned on that tracklist were not included in the press release of Beyoncé's box set. SPECIAL FRIENDSHIP Black voters' loyalty to the Democratic Party hit a new peak during the Obama years. The party is going to have to work harder if it wants to get them to turn out, writes Keli Goff. Black voters may be committed to Obama, but that doesn't mean they are committed to Democrats. | | 
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 | | La lettre d'info Culture et Loisirs Posted: 04 Nov 2014 05:36 AM PST    Si vous n'arrivez pas à lire cette page, cliquez ici  4 novembre 2014  Le jury, présidé cette année par Anne Garreta, a récompensé l'ancien professeur de russe pour son roman apocalyptique Terminus radieux..  L'historien français a été récompensé pour Et dans l'éternité je ne m'ennuierai pas, un récit touchant qui relate son parcours intellectuel et personnel..  Le chanteur français publiera en janvier un récit inspiré de son enfance, dans la collection Littérature des éditions Fayard. Dans ce livre, il s'interroge notamment sur son père, Lucien Lavoine, ainsi que sa mère Micheline Lavoine, qui désirait avoir une fille plutôt qu'un garçon..  Décédé dimanche à l'âge de 92 ans, les réactions à la disparition du journaliste et écrivain français, spécialiste de Picasso, sont nombreuses, d'Anne Baldassari à Fleur Pellerin en passant par François Pinault et Manuel Valls..  VIDÉO - Les usagers du magnifique réseau souterrain de la ville peuvent désormais piocher dans une bibliothèque virtuelle composée des plus grandes œuvres du XIXe siècle de la littérature russe..  Le portail de l'ex-camp nazi qui arborait l'inscription «Arbeit macht frei» a été volé ce week-end. Un incident qui rappelle celui survenu à Auschwitz en 2009..  EN IMAGES - À l'occasion de la sortie de l'odyssée intersidérale de Christopher Nolan, Le Figaro revient sur l'évolution des combinaisons spatiales de 1953 à celle de Matthew McConaughey..  La réalisatrice de Girls est accusé par un site américain ultra-conservateur d'avoir notamment observé le vagin de sa sœur alors âgée de un an, en s'appuyant sur des extraits de son livre autobiographique Not that kind of girl. Choquée, l'actrice a annulé sa tournée promotionnelle..  Histoire d'une romance passionnelle et sexuelle entre un homme riche et une jeune étudiante, le roman sulfureux ne montrera rien d'explicite dans son adaptation au cinéma, attendue le 11 février 2015..  VIDÉO - Le premier extrait de l'ultime épisode de la franchise permet de faire la lumière sur un casting et une histoire longtemps restée mystérieuse. Ce sont aussi les premières images de Paul Walker tournées peu avant sa mort..  Un mystérieux Tweet a annoncé la fin du tournage du prochain épisode de la saga. Il y présentait un mot du réalisateur remerciant chaleureusement toute son équipe..  L'acteur français a confié avoir souhaité prendre un peu de recul, après son incroyable ascension grâce au film The Artist. Il a également assuré qu'un nouveau film autour de son surfeur provençal pourrait voir le jour..  L'acteur, qui fête aujourd'hui ses 45 ans, continue son virage artistique (entamé en 2011 avec La Défense Lincoln), qui l'a mené à l'Oscar l'année dernière. Il est à l'affiche mercredi d‘Interstellar de Christopher Nolan..  VIDÉO - L'acteur et comédien français est l'un des personnages principaux du prochain film de Sophie Letourneur. Il incarne Nicolas, un gardien de château solitaire à la barbe fournie..  VIDÉO - Le trio écossais a publié sur YouTube un nouvel extrait de la bande originale du film qui sort ce mois-ci. Le jeune groupe a été recruté par Lorde qui est en charge du projet..  VIDÉO - Les petits êtres jaunes, véritables stars de Moi, moche et méchant, apparaissent dans la première bande-annonce du film qui leur est entièrement consacré..  INTERVIEW - Avec son film, la réalisatrice signe un premier long-métrage audacieux et captivant, sélectionné pour Un certain regard, à Cannes..  NOUS Y ÉTIONS - La cérémonie de la deuxième édition de la manifestation s'est tenue vendredi 31 octobre, à Paris. Films, réalisateurs, comédiens et techniciens ont été récompensés par Michel Drucker, Aïssa Maïga et Estelle Martin..  Vingt-deux salariés du Musée du cinéma de Moscou ont démissionné pour protester contre les nouvelles méthodes de la direction. Un mouvement de soutien cinéphile se déploie d'ores et déjà à travers le monde..  Marie Gillain et Nicolas Briançon font des étincelles dans l'adaptation au théâtre du livre de Leopolod von Sacher-Masoch, également reprit au cinéma par Roman Polanski..  Le comédien et metteur en scène reprend La Danse du diable, premier de ses époustouflants solos, écrit à partir d'improvisations il y a 33 ans....  Sollicité par l'interprète de Lucie, connu pour être un de ses grands fans, le célèbre chanteur aux lunettes blanches a fait sèchement savoir qu'il ne souhaitait pas collaborer avec lui..  Ce week-end, la chanteuse française a posté, sur le réseau social Instagram, une photo suggestive d'elle en train d'embrasser son amie Aria Crescendo..  Le groupe britannique a mis en ligne un nouveau morceau sur Spotify, une semaine avant la sortie de son nouvel album..  L'Irlandaise avait déjà rempli l'Olympia, il y a deux ans. La voilà de retour, après la sortie de son quatrième album, Tribal (Universal). La chanteuse est toujours aussi rock'n'glamour..  À 23 ans, le pianiste russe est l'un des meilleurs ambassadeurs du compositeur des Études d'exécution transcendante. Il est de retour à Paris sur invitation des Grands Solistes.. .  La chef et contralto consacre un album aux personnages de l'ombre chez Haendel. L'occasion de faire, enfin, leur éloge..  Le photographe canadien arpente les salles du grand musée parisien, pistant dans les chefs-d'œuvre le mystère de leur vie éternelle. Le public, filmé au ralenti par cet humaniste, est captif de la magie..  La peintre anglaise de New York a sa manière fraîche et audacieuse de parler des corps en mouvement. Méli-mélo de nus, palette de printemps, voici sa première exposition à Paris.. .  À Bourges, le Front régional d'optimisation de la culture (FROC) a placé une annonce proposant d'acheter l'une des œuvres emblématiques de la ville, pour protester contre la baisse du budget culturel de la ville..  Le dessinateur Stéphane Trapier est le spécialiste du décalage temporel à double sens. Sous son trait, le roi de la jungle, Zorro ou Louis XVI peuvent évoquer des idées écologiques, économiques ou psychanalytiques....  INFOGRAPHIE - Architectes, promoteurs, entrepreneurs avaient rendez-vous hier avec Anne Hidalgo, maire de la capitale. Elle leur a présenté son appel à projets urbains..  Les nouvelles Peugeot 108 et Renault Twingo peuvent-elles détrôner la Fiat 500, la référence européenne de la catégorie ?.  Du 3 au 5 novembre, les produits tripiers organisent une dégustation gratuite dans la capitale sous le signe de la magie. Aux fourneaux, le duo chef-magicien Yoni Saada et Fred Ericksen..  L'éditeur allemand traverse la Seine pour installer un espace éphémère dans le Marais, le temps d'un hiver. Un temple pour amateurs de livres collectors..
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| | | |  | |  | | Catalogne: la justice espagnole suspend le vote sur l'indépendance prévu le 9 novembre Posted: 04 Nov 2014 04:54 AM PST Si vous avez des difficultés pour visualiser ce message, suivez ce lien   | | Route du Rhum: Vincent Riou, un des favoris, abandonne Posted: 04 Nov 2014 04:47 AM PST Si vous avez des difficultés pour visualiser ce message, suivez ce lien   | | Tuesday's Morning Email: Election Day Dawns Posted: 04 Nov 2014 04:35 AM PST  Tuesday November 4th, 2014  TOP STORIES ELECTION DAY DAWNS "On a final, furious day of campaigning, Republicans strained to capture control of the Senate while Democrats struggled to limit their congressional losses in elections midway through an unpopular President Barack Obama's second term … The cost of the campaign climbed toward $4 billion, and there seemed no end to the attack ads on television — or to the requests for donations keep them on the air." Chances that the GOP takes the Senate are nearing 80%. [ AP] YOUR GO-TO PRIMER Here's what you need to be watching for tonight, and who's on the ballot in each state. Make sure you know what time the polls close in your area. Don't get arrested while using your phone at your polling place. Check out the answers to the midterm election questions you were too embarrassed to ask. And keep up with the Election Day action with Huffington Post's liveblog. EBOLA ON THE DECLINE IN LIBERIA While the epidemic is far from over, the number of patients is sharply declining. And as a reminder, here's a map that lends some perspective on the spread of Ebola in Africa. [ WaPo] BIG BROTHER IS WATCHING Verizon and AT&T track the internet usage of cellular customers with the use of "supercookies," which cannot be erased. [ WaPo] OIL PRICES DROP "Oil prices tumbled to their lowest point in more than two years after Saudi Arabia unexpectedly cut prices for crude sold to the U.S., likely paving the way for further declines and adding to pressure on American energy producers ...The move heightened worries over the resilience of the U.S. oil industry, which has expanded rapidly in recent years." [ WSJ] EBOLA-FREE, BUT CONTAGIOUS THROUGH SEX "There is scant research on to what degree it is passed on through sex, making the act of love a dangerous affair. The lack of knowledge on how sexual relations spreads Ebola means that health warnings here have been vague and not always effective … Clinics have issued survivors with a certificates that cautions them, in large letters, against having sex for 90 days. It doesn't always work." [ WSJ] WHAT'S BREWING NPR'S TOM MAGLIOZZI HAS DIED "Tom Magliozzi, the iconic host of "Car Talk" for nearly 35 years, died Monday at the age of 77, after a battle with Alzheimer's disease, NPR announced." [ HuffPost] 'AFTER THE FALL' "The number of older Americans who fall and suffer serious injuries has soared. More than 2.4 million over the age of 65 were treated in emergency departments for injuries from falls in 2012 alone, and in the decade ending in 2012, 201,000 Americans over 65 died after falls. Geriatricians generally agree that some older people possess an exaggerated sense of what they can still do, even as hazards lie in wait: staircases, throw rugs, slick bathtubs, concrete bumpers in parking lots, tree roots, their own pets. And medications like hypertension drugs and antidepressants, which can cause dizziness, are increasingly the cause of falls." [ NYT] HATERS GONNA HATE But Taylor Swift pulled her music from Spotify. Girl knows how much she's worth, and Spotify is less than pleased. [ HuffPost] JILL ABRAMSON'S VENTURE TO PAY JOURNALISTS $100,000 A STORY Bringing out the big bucks. [ HuffPost] G CAL JUST GOT A MASSIVE UPGRADE Forget the Google calendar of yesteryear. [ Gmail] BANISH THE PHONE FROM YOUR BEDROOM Stop the constant blue light. [ HuffPost] TOM HANKS IS REALLY INTO THIS TYPEWRITER THING He'll be publishing a collection of short stories. [ HuffPost] 'GIRLS' SEASON FOUR LOOKS AS AWKWARD AS EVER And we couldn't be more excited. [ HuffPost] ON THE BLOG VOTING ON THE DRUG WAR "Whatever else Tuesday may bring, it looks poised to be a banner day for those of us who have long sought to end America's failed war on drugs. And if the stars and voter participation align, it may indeed prove a tipping point in the long fight toward a possible landslide for Drug War Reform. Citizens across the country will vote Tuesday on more initiatives to reform drug control policy than at any other time in American history." [ HuffPost] BEFORE YOU GO ~ Meet the penguin robo-chick. ~ Christian Bale has bowed out of the Steve Jobs biopic. ~ Rihanna has a pretty explicit Christmas wish. ~ Matt Lauer's beard is back for " No-Shave November." ~ Truffle oil: don't believe the hype. ~ Proof of "Bendgate." ~ And here are all the arcade games you've been missing, no quarter required.  Follow HuffPost on Facebook, Twitter, Instagram and Pinterest     Get Huffington Post on the Go   |
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